The cover of Economist magazine's Sept 16th issue reads "Surprise! The power of the emerging world". The articles inside are very interesting and supports Golden Horn Ventures belief in the emerging markets and Turkey in particular. There is one survey on the world economy titled, The New Titans.
Here is an excerpt from it:
"Last year the combined output of emerging economies reached an important milestone: it accounted for more than half of total world GDP (measured at purchasing-power parity). This means that the rich countries no longer dominate the global economy. The developing countries also have a far greater influence on the performance of the rich economies than is generally realised. Emerging economies are driving global growth and having a big impact on developed countries' inflation, interest rates, wages and profits. As these newcomers become more integrated into the global economy and their incomes catch up with the rich countries, they will provide the biggest boost to the world economy since the industrial revolution. Indeed, it is likely to be the biggest stimulus in history, because the industrial revolution fully involved only one-third of the world's population. By contrast, this new revolution covers most of the globe, so the economic gains—as well as the adjustment pains—will be far bigger..."The chart numbered "2" shows that countries that were once strong, became weaker with the industry revolution and they are"re-emerging" again.
"Emerging economies as a group have been growing faster than developed economies for several decades. So why are they now making so much more of a difference to the old rich world? The first reason is that the gap in growth rates between the old and the new world has widened (see chart 3). But more important, emerging economies have become more integrated into the global system of production, with trade and capital flows accelerating relative to GDP in the past ten years...."
"What is also new is that the internet has made it possible radically to reorganise production across borders. Thanks to information technology, many once non-tradable services, such as accounting, can be provided from afar, exposing more sectors in the developed world to competition from India and elsewhere..."
As the Internet and the abundance of information and technology has connected the emerging world to the developed world (to the distribution points, the centers/hubs of economy), there are more changes coming up.
The Internet feeds emerging markets with information and brings different communication and business rituals. The globalization itself has created know-how in the emerging countries. I have partly discussed the very same points in my previous post titled, Innovation, Technology and Emerging Markets.
What I would like to add to the Economist's article is innovation from the emerging countries and the disruption that it creates on the world economy and markets. Technology introduces many new ways of distribution and creation. It also allows the voices of the poor and far audible all over the world. The products and services of the ones in the emerging markets become available in the international markets as the barriers to entry decreases or better to say, the ability to distribute and innovate is democratized. That will result more innovation from the emerging countries, thus creating more disruption in the world economy.
As a result, the catching up to the developed world standards will be faster than we envision it will be. The way that it will happen will be disruptive. Just as startups can rock the monopolies (eg. the entertainment industry), companies from the emerging world can rock the world economy's existing equilibrium and create more prosperity for many in and outside of the emerging markets. Pretty soon the definitions of "emerging" and "developed" will change. The macro stories will be changed by "micro" successes and disruptive company/product/service names.
Wasn't that the hidden promise of globalization anyway? The promises are there for us to grab. It isn't easy, but it is here and it is the future.
What the Brand New World means for IT?
• Countries that have only been used for outsourcing start creating innovative products and services,
⁃More innovation will come out of the emerging countries as the emerging countries have piled up information and ideas and the reach of technology and building a technology company getting cheaper everyday, thus the geography of the innovation is becoming trivial,
• Local will become international more quicker than ever,
• In addition to big companies (such as Microsoft, IBM) being international and harvesting the benefits of being international, startups from the emerging countries will become international if /when there is a value (a new technology, a new business model, a new distribution model, etc.) in them (I specifically say startups, not companies, because I believe that only startups can pursue opportunities and create disruption),
• The markets are getting bigger (the transition from the mainframe to PC has created more than $300 billion wealth, the transition from PC to services will create even more significant wealth). The sharing of this wealth between the developed and emerging markets is starting to shift as innovation comes from any geography,
• New distribution models make it possible for emerging market players to become global for service businesses and digital products as broadband connection becomes prevalent,
• New business development models are rising: (Business 2.0, A VC blog by Fred Wilson) that are more independent of the geography of the company, but are dependent on the technology and usefulness and their disruptive qualities,
• New venture capital models are rising:( Venture Capital 2.0 , Early Stage VC blog by Peter Rip)
⁃"The basis for competition in the Venture 2.0 Crossover model is a focus on markets, independent of stage, geography, and risk capital instrument.",
• The disruption is happening everyday. The strong is weak when it lacks to innovate (eg. The rise of new business models, the struggle of Microsoft with advertising model vs. the software as a package),
• Innovation, disruption and links; The innovators that have a link to the centers of the economy have a global impact and influence. Disruptors that have links to Silicon Valley will effect the equilibrium of the market.